Guo Jia

Biography

Family Background and Early Life

Guo Jia was born in Yangdi, Yingchuan, into the prominent Yingchuan Guo clan of the Eastern Han. Yingchuan produced many talented men in the late Han and was also the home region of strategists such as Xun Yu, Xun You, and Chen Qun. Guo grew up in this intellectual environment and developed great ambitions while still young. As the empire moved toward disorder in the late Han, from about the age of twenty he concealed his identity, secretly formed ties with outstanding men, and avoided ordinary social contacts. As a result, few people at the time knew of his abilities, although a small number of perceptive observers recognized him as exceptional. The Records of the Three Kingdoms, quoting the Fuzi, says that Guo “possessed far-reaching judgment from youth. When the realm was about to fall into disorder at the end of Han, from the age of twenty he concealed his traces, privately associated with outstanding men, and did not mix with ordinary people; therefore most people of the time did not know him, but those with discernment regarded him as extraordinary.”

Choosing a Lord

In his early career Guo Jia traveled north and entered the circle of Yuan Shao, but after observing him concluded that Yuan was not a ruler under whom great affairs could be accomplished. He told Yuan Shao's advisers Xin Ping and Guo Tu that a wise man must carefully judge his lord so that actions are well considered and plans can succeed. Yuan Shao, he argued, imitated the Duke of Zhou's courtesy toward worthy men but did not understand how to employ them; he devised many plans without grasping essentials and was fond of planning but unable to decide. To join such a man in overcoming the great crisis of the age and achieving hegemony, Guo concluded, would be extremely difficult. He therefore left Yuan Shao.

In 196 (first year of the Jian'an era), after Cao Cao's adviser Xi Zhicai died, Cao wrote to Xun Yu asking him to recommend a successor. Xun Yu, who knew Guo Jia's abilities well, recommended him to Cao Cao. Cao summoned Guo and discussed the affairs of the empire with him. Guo then presented the “Ten Victories and Ten Defeats” analysis, systematically comparing Cao Cao's strengths with Yuan Shao's weaknesses. Cao was deeply impressed and said, “The man who can help me accomplish my great enterprise must be this one.” Guo Jia, likewise pleased, said, “This is truly my lord.” He was therefore appointed military-libations officer to the Excellency of Works at the age of twenty-seven.

Assisting Cao Cao

In 198 (third year of Jian'an), Cao Cao campaigned east against Lü Bu. Lü Bu withdrew into Xiapi, and after a prolonged siege Cao's soldiers became exhausted and Cao considered withdrawing. Guo Jia argued that Xiang Yu had won more than seventy battles but, once he lost momentum, died and lost his state because he relied on courage without strategy. Lü Bu, by contrast, had suffered repeated defeats, exhausted his spirit and strength, and lost control both within and without; if attacked vigorously at once, Guo said, he could certainly be captured. Cao accepted the advice and, together with Xun You, breached the Si and Yi rivers to flood the city, ultimately capturing Lü Bu alive.

That same year Liu Bei submitted to Cao Cao. Guo warned that Liu Bei possessed great talent and ambition, had won the support of the people, and had Guan Yu and Zhang Fei—both formidable warriors—willing to die for him. Liu Bei, he argued, would never remain subordinate forever and should be eliminated early. Cao Cao, however, was then seeking to attract heroes from across the realm and did not follow the advice. In 199, Liu Bei used a mission to intercept Yuan Shu as an opportunity to break away from Cao, seize Xiapi, and rebel, causing Cao to regret not following Guo's recommendation.

In 200, when Cao planned to attack Liu Bei in the east, many commanders feared Yuan Shao would strike their rear. Guo judged Yuan Shao to be slow and suspicious by nature and unlikely to move quickly, urging Cao to seize the opportunity. Cao attacked and defeated Liu Bei. During the Battle of Guandu, Sun Ce planned to cross the Yangzi and attack Xudu, causing alarm in Cao's camp. Guo predicted that Sun Ce was “rash and unguarded” and would die at the hands of an ordinary assassin. Sun Ce was indeed killed by retainers of Xu Gong before crossing the river. After Yuan Shao died in 202, Cao Cao campaigned against Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang at Liyang and won repeated victories. While the generals wanted to pursue, Guo advised slowing the offensive: a hard attack would unite the brothers, whereas easing pressure would allow their rivalry to erupt. Cao followed the plan and marched south against Liu Biao. Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang soon fell into conflict, allowing Cao's forces to take Ji Province with relative ease.

Northern Campaign Against the Wuhuan and Death

In 207, Yuan Shang fled to the Wuhuan. Cao Cao wanted to campaign north, but many generals feared that Liu Biao would attack from the south. Guo Jia rejected this concern, arguing that Liu Biao did not trust Liu Bei and would therefore not undertake major action. The Wuhuan, meanwhile, had close relations with the Yuan family and would remain a serious future threat if not defeated. Guo argued that “speed is precious in war” and recommended a light, rapid surprise campaign. Cao adopted the plan, marched north, defeated the Wuhuan, and killed Tadun. Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi fled to Liaodong, where Gongsun Kang killed them, bringing the north under control.

Guo Jia had already fallen seriously ill during the campaign and died at Yizhou on the return journey, only thirty-eight years old. Cao Cao personally attended the mourning rites and wept bitterly. He told Xun You and others that they were close to him in age, while Fengxiao alone had been younger; after pacifying the empire, he had intended to entrust future affairs to Guo, yet Guo had died in midlife—surely, he said, this was Heaven's will. Guo Jia was later given the posthumous title Marquis Zhen, and his son Guo Yi inherited his title.

The Content of the Ten Victories and Ten Defeats

When Cao Cao summoned Guo Jia to discuss the affairs of the empire, he began by asking how, with Yuan Shao holding the host of Jizhou and followed by the armies of Qing and Bing, broad in land and strong in arms, and repeatedly showing him no respect, he was to attack him when his own strength could not match. Guo Jia answered with the analogy of Chu and Han, which the duke knew well: that the Han founder had won by wisdom alone, and that Xiang Yu, strong as he was, had in the end been taken. He reckoned that Shao had ten defeats and the duke ten victories, so that however strong his army, he could do nothing. The ten were these: Shao was burdened with ceremony and ritual while the duke acted according to nature, a victory in the Way; Shao moved against the current of right while the duke upheld obedience and led the empire, a victory in righteousness; Han government had failed through laxity and Shao cured laxity with laxity and so could not control men, while the duke corrected it with severity so that high and low understood the rules, a victory in government; Shao was outwardly generous and inwardly jealous, employing men while doubting them and using only his own kin, while the duke was outwardly simple and inwardly clear, employing men without doubt, suiting office to ability without regard to distance, a victory in measure; Shao made many plans but decided few, losing the moment, while the duke acted as soon as a plan was formed, responding to change without end, a victory in strategy; Shao, on the strength of generations of position, gathered fame by lofty talk and ceremonial yielding, so that men fond of fine words and outward show came to him, while the duke treated men with wholeheartedness, acted in good faith, made no false display, led by frugality and grudged nothing to the deserving, so that the loyal, upright and far-seeing came to serve him, a victory in virtue; Shao, seeing men hungry and cold, showed pity in his face, but for what he did not see gave no thought, which is the benevolence of a woman, while the duke sometimes neglected small matters at hand but in great matters dealt with all within the four seas, apportioning grace beyond men's hopes, and what he did not see his thought encompassed and brought to success, a victory in benevolence; Shao's ministers fought for power and slander confused his plans, while the duke governed his subordinates by principle so that insinuation did not work, a victory in clarity; Shao could not tell right from wrong, while the duke advanced what was right with courtesy and corrected what was wrong with law, a victory in culture; and Shao loved empty display and did not understand the essentials of war, while the duke beat the many with the few, using troops like a god, so that his soldiers relied on him and the enemy feared him, a victory in arms. Cao Cao laughed and said that if it were as he said, what virtue had he to deserve it; and Guo Jia added that Shao was then striking north at Gongsun Zan, so that the occasion might be taken to go east and take Lü Bu, for if Lü Bu were not first taken, and Shao became a threat with Lü Bu to help him, it would be a deep harm. Cao Cao agreed.

The Death of Xi Zhicai, the Danger of Liu Bei, and the Chance for an Eastern Campaign

Guo Jia came to Cao Cao's staff through the death of Xi Zhicai of Yingchuan, a planner whom Cao Cao greatly valued and who died young; Cao Cao wrote to Xun Yu that since Zhicai's death there was no one with whom to take counsel, that Ru and Ying were rich in men of genius, and asked who could succeed him, and Xun Yu recommended Guo Jia. After the audience and the discussion of the empire's affairs Cao Cao said that the man who would make his great work was this one, and Guo Jia, coming out, said gladly that this was truly his lord, and he was appointed libationer of the army of the minister of works.

In the early Jian'an years, when Liu Bei surrendered, Cao Cao received him with the courtesy due a guest and made him governor of Yuzhou; and Guo Jia told Cao Cao that Bei had heroic talent and greatly won men's hearts, that Zhang Fei and Guan Yu were each a match for ten thousand men and would die for him, that in his own view Bei would never remain below others and his designs could not be measured, and that as the ancients said, to let an enemy go for one day is a calamity for several generations, so that he should be dealt with early. But Cao Cao was then supporting the Son of Heaven to command the empire and was gathering heroes to show great good faith, and did not follow his advice. In 199, when Yuan Shu, defeated at Chen, was to be met by Yuan Tan from Qingzhou and wished to pass north by Xiapi, Cao Cao sent Liu Bei and Zhu Ling to intercept him, and Yuan Shu died of illness; and Cheng Yu and Guo Jia, hearing that Cao Cao had sent Liu Bei, said that Liu Bei must not be let go, and Cao Cao repented and sent after him too late. Liu Bei had already been plotting with Dong Cheng before he went east, and at Xiapi he killed the governor of Xuzhou, Che Zhou, and raised troops at Pei, and Liu Dai and Wang Zhong sent against him could not beat him. In the first month of 200 Cao Cao wished to attack Liu Bei at once, and the councillors feared that with the army out Yuan Shao would strike at his rear, so that he could neither fight Shao nor hold his base; and Cao Cao, hesitating, asked Guo Jia, who advised that Shao was slow by nature and full of doubt and would not come quickly, while Bei, newly risen with men's hearts not yet attached to him, would certainly be beaten if attacked at once, and that this was the moment of survival or ruin which must not be lost. Cao Cao agreed and went east, broke Liu Bei heavily and took his general Xiahou Bo alive; Liu Bei fled to Yuan Shao and his wife and children were taken; his general Guan Yu, holding Xiapi, was attacked again and surrendered; Chang Xi, revolting to Liu Bei, was also broken; and Cao Cao returned to Guandu, and Yuan Shao after all did not come out.

Slow Pressure on the Yuan Brothers, the Taking of Ye, and the Northern Campaign against the Wuhuan

Having helped break Yuan Shao and, after his death, having attacked Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang at Liyang with victory after victory, Cao Cao's generals wished to press on, but Guo Jia said that Yuan Shao had loved these two sons and had never settled which to set up, that with Guo Tu and Feng Ji for counsellors they would surely fight among themselves and turn apart, that pressing them would make them hold together while waiting would breed the will to contend, and that it would be better to go south toward Jingzhou as if to attack Liu Biao and wait for the change, which when it came might be struck at and settled at one blow. Cao Cao agreed and went south, and the brothers indeed fell out. Later, when Cao Cao returned north to attack Ye, he raised earth hills and tunnels, then destroyed them, made a siege ditch and broke the Zhang river to flood the city, so that more than half within died of hunger; and when Yuan Shang came back to relieve Ye the generals thought a returning army could not be withstood, but Cao Cao said that if Shang came by the great road he must be avoided, while if he came by the western hills he could be taken, and Shang did come by the western hills and was broken and driven off; later he fled by night to hold Qi mountain, his generals Ma Yan and Zhang Yi surrendered in the field and his host broke up, Cao Cao took all his baggage and the seals and insignia of Yuan Shang, and Shen Rong, nephew of Shen Pei, opened the eastern gate by night to let the troops in, so that Shen Pei fought and was taken and beheaded and Ye was settled. When Cao Cao was about to attack Yuan Shang and the three commanderies of the Wuhuan, most of his subordinates feared that Liu Biao would send Liu Bei to raid Xu, but Guo Jia said that though the duke's majesty shook the empire, the barbarians relied on their distance and would surely not prepare, so that striking them unprepared and suddenly would destroy them; that Yuan Shao had shown kindness to the people and the barbarians and that the brothers Shang and Xi were still alive; that the people of the four provinces were attached only by awe with no kindness yet shown them, so that if he left them to go south, Shang would use the resources of the Wuhuan and gather the servants of his dead lord, and once the barbarians moved both people and barbarians would answer, breeding in Tadun the ambition and the design of grasping, so that Qing and Ji might no longer be his; and that Liu Biao was a mere talker at his ease, knowing that his ability could not control Liu Bei, so that to employ him heavily would risk losing control and lightly to employ him would leave Bei unwilling to serve him — so that even to go on a distant campaign with the state emptied, the duke had nothing to fear. Cao Cao therefore went, and at Yi Guo Jia advised that in war speed was precious, that to strike a thousand li away with heavy baggage made it hard to seize the advantage and that the enemy, hearing of it, would prepare, so that it would be better to leave the baggage and go by double stages with light troops to take them unawares. Cao Cao accordingly went out secretly by the Lulong pass straight for the court of the chanyu; and the enemy, suddenly hearing that he had come, joined battle in terror and were heavily broken, Tadun and the famous princes and below being killed, while Yuan Shang and his brother Yuan Xi fled to Liaodong.

His Death, Cao Cao's Memorial and Letters, and His Posthumous Honours

Guo Jia was thirty-eight; returning from Liucheng his illness was grave, and Cao Cao's messengers asking after him came and went on the road; and when he died Cao Cao attended the mourning in person and grieved deeply, telling Xun You and the others that all of them were of his own generation and only Fengxiao the youngest, that when the empire was settled he had meant to entrust him with what came after, and that he had died in middle life, which was fate. He then memorialized that the army libationer Guo Jia had followed the campaigns for eleven years, that in every great deliberation he had met the enemy and shaped the response, that when his own plans were undecided Guo Jia had completed them, that in the pacification of the empire his counsel was the highest in merit, and that he had died young with his work unfinished, so that his services could not be forgotten and his fief should be raised by eight hundred households to a thousand in all; and he was given the posthumous name marquis Zhen. Cao Cao also wrote to Xun Yu twice in mourning for him, saying in one letter that Guo Fengxiao was not yet forty and had been with him eleven years through every danger and hardship, that because of his understanding and his freedom from obstinacy in things he had meant to entrust him with what came after, and that he had not thought to lose him so suddenly, and grieving that few men in the world truly know one another; and in the other that he could not put the memory of him out of his mind, that in seeing the affairs of the time and the business of war he surpassed other men, and that while most men feared illness and there was plague in the south and he used to say that if he went south he would not come back alive, yet when they discussed plans together he held that Jingzhou must be settled first — which showed not only the loyalty of his counsel but that he was resolved to win merit and would spend his life to do it. Earlier Chen Qun had criticized Guo Jia for lax conduct and several times accused him at court, while Guo Jia remained unmoved; and Cao Cao valued him the more, while being pleased that Chen Qun could hold to what was right. Later, when Cao Cao returned from the campaign in Jingzhou and met plague at Baqiu and burned his ships, he sighed that if Guo Fengxiao were alive he would not have let him come to this. As to what followed, Guo Jia was enfeoffed marquis of the Weiyang pavilion; his eldest son Guo Yi, styled Boyi, inherited, and Guo Yi's second son Guo Chang, styled Taizhong, became a cavalier attendant of Wei, while Guo Shen's son Guo Lie also inherited the title of marquis of Weiyang pavilion; and in 262, the third year of Jingyuan, the court decreed that sacrifices be offered to the late army libationer Guo Jia in the temple court of Taizu Cao Cao, another mark of his standing after death.

Major Activities

The “Ten Victories and Ten Defeats” Analysis

When Guo Jia first met Cao Cao in 196, he presented the “Ten Victories and Ten Defeats” analysis, comparing Cao and Yuan Shao in ten areas: the Way, righteousness, governance, standards, planning, virtue, benevolence, discernment, civil qualities, and military qualities. He argued that although Cao's forces were weaker in number, Cao held advantages in all ten dimensions. The analysis strengthened Cao's confidence in confronting Yuan Shao and, alongside Xun Yu's “Four Victories and Four Defeats” argument, became an important strategic formulation within Cao's group.

Capture and Death of Lü Bu

In 198, Cao Cao attacked Lü Bu at Xiapi. When the besieging army became exhausted and Cao considered retreating, Guo urged an immediate assault, arguing that Lü Bu's “spirit and strength were exhausted and he had lost control within and without.” Cao accepted the advice and, together with Xun You, used river water to flood the city. Lü Bu was captured and killed.

Prediction of Sun Ce's Death

During the Battle of Guandu, Sun Ce planned to cross the Yangzi and attack Xudu, causing panic in Cao's camp. Guo judged Sun Ce “rash and unguarded”; although he commanded a vast force, Guo said, he was effectively “no different from a man traveling alone through the Central Plains” and would inevitably die at the hands of an assassin. Sun Ce was indeed killed by retainers of Xu Gong before he could cross the river, removing a threat to Cao's rear.

Delaying the Attack on the Yuan Brothers

After Yuan Shao died in 202, Cao Cao attacked Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang. Guo recommended easing the pressure in order to encourage their rivalry. The two brothers soon fought over the succession, allowing Cao's army to seize Ji Province and take a key step toward the unification of northern China.

Northern Campaign Against the Wuhuan

In 207, Guo strongly supported the expedition against the Wuhuan and advocated the principle that “speed is precious in war,” recommending that Cao abandon heavy baggage and make a light, rapid surprise attack. Cao adopted the plan, decisively defeated the Wuhuan, and killed Tadun. Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi fled to Liaodong and were later killed by Gongsun Kang, bringing the north under Cao's control.

Exceptional Judgment

Guo Jia was skilled at reading people and accurately anticipated the character and behavior of Yuan Shao, Liu Biao, Liu Bei, Sun Ce, and others. Cao Cao praised him, saying, “Only Fengxiao could understand my intentions.” Chen Shou wrote in the Records of the Three Kingdoms: “Cheng Yu, Guo Jia, Dong Zhao, Liu Ye, and Jiang Ji were men of talent, strategy, and calculation—extraordinary scholars of their age.”

The Character of His Counsel, His Image in the Sources, and Later Elaboration

In style, Guo Jia's advice began from men's minds and the circumstances of the time. His judgement that Yuan Shao was "full of devices but short of essentials, fond of planning but unable to decide," his prediction that Sun Ce, "light and unprepared... must die by the hand of a common man," his analysis that Yuan Shao "is slow by nature and full of doubt, and will not come quickly," and his estimate of Liu Biao as "a mere talker at his ease, knowing that his ability cannot control Liu Bei, so that to employ him heavily would risk losing control and lightly to employ him would leave Bei unwilling to serve him," all judge the man first and the affair after; and the advice to press the Yuan brothers slowly so that they fell out, and to leave the baggage and march by double stages against the Wuhuan, turned such judgements into concrete plans. Cao Cao said that "only Fengxiao truly knows my mind," and again that "when my plans were undecided, Jia completed them," which shows his place in the chain of decision was to complete and to bring to the point. Nor did he merely advise on occasions: he put forward a whole framework of analysis in the ten victories and ten defeats, covering political measures, laws and ordinances, lines of appointment, and personal cultivation, breadth of mind, character and civil and military capacity. Cao Cao further said of him that he "understood deeply the arts of calculation and reached the truth of things," and that "in seeing the affairs of the time and the business of war he surpassed other men"; while Chen Qun repeatedly accused him of lax conduct and he remained unmoved, so that Cao Cao valued him the more — which leaves in the record a side of him that was careless of small proprieties.

Later ages added to his image. In the novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms Guo Jia's life follows the histories closely, being recommended to Cao Cao first by Xun Yu and then confirmed and advanced by Cheng Yu, an adviser of keen insight and great trust, who himself recommended the counsellor Liu Ye; and the novel adds the episode of a plan left behind at his death to settle Liaodong, raising him further in literary tradition. As to his family, the Guo of Yingchuan were themselves a great clan of Ru and Ying in the Eastern Han: in that dynasty the family of Guo Hong and Guo Gong, who handed down the law, produced "seven chief justices in one house" and were called "a house of caps and gowns for generations"; and by the Three Kingdoms period the Guo of Yingchuan were famed for men of counsel, Guo Jia and Guo Tu being the chief advisers of the Cao Cao and Yuan Shao groups respectively.

Personal Relations

• Son: Guo Yi, who inherited the line, served as a Crown Prince's literary attendant, and died young.
• Grandsons: Guo Shen, son of Guo Yi and successor to the line; Guo Chang, courtesy name Taizhong, a talented man who served as Regular Mounted Attendant.
• Great-grandson: Guo Lie, son of Guo Shen and successor to the line.
• Xun Yu: recommender; a fellow member of the Yingchuan political network with whom Guo had close ties.
• Xi Zhicai: previous holder of the adviser role; Guo succeeded him after his death.
• Cheng Yu: colleague who, together with Guo, once urged Cao Cao not to let Liu Bei leave.
• Xun You: colleague and fellow adviser to Cao Cao, with whom Guo maintained a cooperative relationship.
• Cao Cao: lord and patron; trusted Guo deeply, regarded him as an “extraordinary assistant,” and had intended to entrust future affairs to him.
• Yuan Shao: Guo's early prospective patron, whom he left after concluding that Yuan was “fond of plans but lacking decision.”
• Chen Qun: once impeached Guo for irregular personal conduct; Guo did not change, and Cao Cao did not punish him.
• Liu Bei: Guo urged Cao Cao to eliminate Liu Bei; Cao did not follow the advice, and Liu Bei later rebelled.

Historical Assessment

Wei and Jin Periods

• Cao Cao: “The man who can help me accomplish my great enterprise must be this one.” (Records of the Three Kingdoms, Book of Wei, biography of Guo Jia, quoting the Fuzi.)
• Cao Cao: “Only Fengxiao could understand my intentions.” (Records of the Three Kingdoms, Book of Wei, biography of Guo Jia, quoting the Fuzi.)
• Cao Cao: “Had Guo Fengxiao been alive, he would not have let me come to this.” (Pei Songzhi's annotation to the biography of Guo Jia in the Records of the Three Kingdoms, quoting the Fuzi.)
• Cao Cao: “Alas, Fengxiao! How painful, Fengxiao! How regrettable, Fengxiao!” (Pei Songzhi's annotation to the biography of Guo Jia in the Records of the Three Kingdoms, quoting the Fuzi.)
• Chen Shou: “Cheng Yu, Guo Jia, Dong Zhao, Liu Ye, and Jiang Ji were men of talent, strategy, and calculation—extraordinary scholars of their age.” (Records of the Three Kingdoms, Book of Wei.)

Tang and Song Periods

• Zhu Jingze: listed Chen Ping, Xun Yu, Jia Xu, Xun You, Cheng Yu, Guo Jia, Tian Feng, Ju Shou, Cui Hao, Zhang Bin, and others as “the finest talents under Heaven” (Sui Tang Jiahua).
• Li Deyu: “Guo Jia and Xun You were both chief strategists of Wei.” (Huichang Yipinji.)
• Su Shi: wrote that although Cao Cao repeatedly found himself in difficult or dangerous positions, “the plans of Guo Jia and Xun You were also greatly worthy of praise” (Dongpo Zhilin).

Ming and Qing Periods

• Luo Guanzhong's Romance of the Three Kingdoms shaped Guo Jia into the wise figure who “left a plan that settled Liaodong.” Although this is not historical fact, it reflects later admiration for his intelligence.
• Wang Fuzhi: “Guo Jia and Xun You were both men of strategic intelligence, but Jia's clarity surpassed You's.” (Du Tongjian Lun.)
• Mao Zonggang, commenting on Romance of the Three Kingdoms: “Guo Jia's prediction concerning Sun Ce was as clear as watching a fire.”

Modern Period

• Lü Simian regarded Guo Jia as Cao Cao's most trusted strategist and described the accuracy of his predictions as exceptional among the strategists of the Three Kingdoms period (Talks on the History of the Three Kingdoms).
• Yi Zhongtian called Guo Jia “the foremost strategist of the Three Kingdoms” and described his death as Cao Cao's greatest loss (Appraising the Three Kingdoms).
• Tian Yuqing argued that Guo Jia's “Ten Victories and Ten Defeats” analysis was an important expression of the strategic thinking of Cao Cao's political group (Studies in the History of Qin, Han, Wei and Jin).